The KMEM TAF in Figure 15 includes the group "PROB40 1220/1222 1SM TSRA OVC008CB." What does this forecast?
Why: The Remote Pilot Study Guide defines PROB30/PROB40 as a percentage probability of thunderstorms and precipitation occurring, with the following group giving the time window, visibility, and weather phenomena in the same coding as a METAR — so this group is a 40% chance, from 2000Z to 2200Z on the 12th, of 1SM visibility in a thunderstorm with heavy rain and an 800-foot overcast ceiling of cumulonimbus clouds.
Treats PROB40 as a certainty rather than a probability, and misreads the four-digit time window (1220/1222) as a single timestamp.
Misreads the weather-phenomena coding "TSRA" (thunderstorm, heavy rain) as a wind group, which ignores that wind is never coded with letters like TS or RA.
UA.III.A.K3 · Source: sport_rec_private_akts.pdf, Figure 15, p. 2-15; remote_pilot_study_guide.pdf, p. 16, 19 · Reviewed 2026-10-22